Posted by: BibleScienceGuy | June 11, 2014

3. Population Growth – Challenge to Evolution

Noah, the Movie graphically portrays the devastation of Noah’s Flood, but it ignores a very intriguing question: How many people died in Noah’s Flood?

This Population Growth series will suggest an answer to that question.

On the other hand, if no Flood occurred and the evolutionary time scale for humanity were true, mathematical models predict that the Earth should have far, far more people than there are now. Where are they? Where have all the people gone?

Evolution speculates a time frame that would produce this kind of crowding over every acre of the planet.

Evolution speculates a time frame that would produce
crowding like this over every acre of the planet.

Populations grow exponentially, just like money in a savings account. Population growth is compound growth like compound interest. Simple figuring will show that if no Flood occurred, then using an evolutionary time scale, most of the human population is missing. This indicates that the theory of evolution cannot be true.

Evolution and Population Growth

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the post-Flood world population first reached 1 billion in 1804 and 7 billion in 2012. Over that 208-year period, the average population doubling time was about 74 years with an annual percentage growth rate of 0.940%.
(See Could Noah Fill the Earth?)

Evolutionists claim humans “evolved” a million years ago. For simplicity suppose humans started walking the earth only 150,000 years ago (far less than evolutionists claim), and use an average population doubling time of 150 years which is over twice the 74-year doubling time of the last two centuries. In that time there would be 1,000 doublings (150,000/150 = 1,000), so two people would grow to more than 10 to the 301st power. This is a staggering number! It’s many trillions of times the supposed number of atoms in the entire universe (whether scientists know this number is another topic — Spoiler: they don’t).

Now it’s true that the population could not grow at this constant rate for 150,000 years because of the limiting capacity of the earth and its resources. Nevertheless, assuming Noah’s Flood never occurred, this calculation shows there should be far more people alive and dead if humanity has been around for one million years.

Moreover, where are all those skeletons? Buried bones should easily last well over 200,000 years. In fact, evolutionists themselves date dinosaur bones that they find to over 60 million years old, and over 30 million fossilized dinosaur bones and parts have been found.
(See Dr. Jerry Bergman, The Evolution of Dinosaurs: Much Conjecture, Little Evidence, Creation Research Science Quarterly, vol 46, Fall 2009, p 124.)

Evolution Everywhere

Thus earth should be inundated with human bones. Yet only a few thousand human fossil skeletons have been found — not untold millions as one would expect if the evolutionary story were true.

Evolutionists try to get around this by claiming that the human population was stagnant for long periods of time. But this is only an assumption. There’s no actual evidence that this was the case.

Some argue that disease and wars retarded population growth. But the last two centuries which have seen rapid population growth from 1 billion to 7 billion people have also witnessed the worst plagues, famines, and horrific wars. All the real evidence available shows human population growing at varying rates but not stagnant.

For example, the world Jewish population in 1933 before the Nazi Holocaust has been estimated at 15.3 million (according to the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in the Holocaust Encyclopedia). Other estimates range from 16 to 18 million. I’ll make a conservative calculation of the Jewish growth rate using the smaller estimate of 15.3 million.

Jews are descendants of the initial Israelite population in Egypt that numbered approximately 100. (See Israel in Egypt.) In about 3700 years (circa 1767 BC – 1933 AD) the Israelites grew from about 100 people to 15.3 million people. This is an average doubling time of about 215 years and an average annual percentage growth rate of 0.323%. Even a small growth rate over a long period of time produces a significant population.

Thus the known facts of population growth fit the Biblical chronology very well, but they do not fit the evolutionary chronology of human history. The known facts support the history recorded in the Bible. The world was flooded and destroyed 4500 years ago (Genesis 6–9; 2 Peter 3:3-6), and today’s population is descended from Noah’s three sons and their wives.

Today’s population is easily reachable from Noah’s sons in 4,500 years with an average doubling time of 149 years and an annual percentage growth rate of 0.465%. (See Could Noah Fill the Earth?) However, to think that humanity has been here even 150,000 years is simply ludicrous based on population mathematics. Earth and humanity cannot be as old as evolutionists claim. There are not enough people dead or alive for evolution to be true.

Evolutionary scenarios presume humans have existed for a million years. That’s absurd! The entire known universe could not hold all the people potentially produced in that time.

Population growth mathematics clearly supports the Biblical record. The Biblical account of history is true.

Population Growth Formulas

For those interested in checking the math, here are the relevant Population Growth formulas:
The population doubling time (length of time it takes a population to double) in years is
= T/d where T is the population’s elapsed time in years and d is the # of doublings.
= (log 2) / log(1+r) where r is the annual growth rate.

Starting with population P, the new population is
= P x 2d after d doublings.
= P x (1+r)n after n years at an annual growth rate r.

Questions to Ponder
  1. Why do evolutionists ignore the glaringly contradictory evidence of impossibly small current population figures?
  2. How many people do you think died in Noah’s Flood? (This will be the topic for next week’s blog post.)
  3. Share your thoughts on these questions in the comments below. It could encourage or help another reader.

Soli Deo Gloria.

Read the prequels in this series on Population Growth:
1. Population Growth – Could Noah Fill the Earth?
2. Population Growth – Israel in Egypt

Read the sequel:
4. Population Growth – How Many Died in Noah’s Flood?

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©William T. Pelletier, Ph.D.
“contending earnestly for the faith”
“destroying speculations against the knowledge of God”
(Jude 1:3; 2 Cor 10:4)
Wednesday June 11, 2014 A.D.

Know this first of all, that in the last days mockers will come with their mocking, following after their own lusts, and saying, “Where is the promise of His coming? For ever since the fathers fell asleep, all continues just as it was from the beginning of creation.” For when they maintain this, it escapes their notice that by the word of God the heavens existed long ago and the earth was formed out of water and by water, through which the world at that time was destroyed, being flooded with water.
(2 Peter 3:3-6)

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Responses

  1. Applying figures of modern population growth to older groups is unjustified, given that they lacked many of the advances in food production and healthcare that allow modern groups to sustain large population growth. Like you say, we should actually expect prior population growth to be much slower, if not outright stagnant. However, unlike what you claim there is actually a lot of evidence for this.

    Censuses in the Han dynasty, for example, reveal that the population of China in 2 AD was ~59 million. By 150 AD – when the population should have doubled under your model – it had actually changed to…56 million. Similarly Roman records show little growth. These figures are a bit more iffy given that they only recorded Roman citizens in their censuses, so the total population has to be extrapolated from this. Nevertheless stagnation is apparent. From 300 – 100 BC the number of Roman citizens remains the same at about 500,000 individuals; when again, we should be expecting to see a doubling of population under your model.

    To make matters worse for your extrapolation, even this conservative data probably isn’t applicable to most of human history as it comes from farming cultures; which only appeared within the last 10,000 years. Prior to that humans were all hunter-gatherers; who require a lot more territory to sustain a large population. This effectively caps the total number of humans that could’ve been alive at any one point at around 10 million. That said, the number likely never approached that maximum as humans only began to occupy the entire world around 15,000 years ago.

    In short, your population figures are unjustified and unsupported by the evidence.

    Like

    • Thanks for reading and commenting.

      Your disagreement with my post stems primarily from our differing worldviews. I believe based on the historical record in the Bible that human history has only lasted about 6,000 years. Moreover humans started as farmers, not as hunter-gatherers. God tasked Adam with tending the garden of Eden (Genesis 2:15), and his first two sons were in agriculture, raising crops (Cain) and livestock (Abel) (Genesis 4:2).

      Reliable world population data prior to 1800 does not exist. All we have are estimates and guesses which could be wildly inaccurate. Figures for sub-populations like the Romans or Chinese are even less certain. The best secular estimates for the world population at the birth of Christ run around 200 million. Assuming this is accurate, the doubling time for the world population to reach 7 billion in 2012 is about 300 years.

      Even using a doubling time of 300 years, 2 people (Adam & Eve) would grow to over 10 to the 150th power in 150,000 years. Even far, far smaller rates of growth would give impossibly large numbers of people in the million-year-history that evolutionists claim for humans.

      Evolutionists like to claim that the world population has been retarded or stagnant for most of history due to such things as wars, disease epidemics, inadequate healthcare, and primitive food production, but there’s no actual evidence that this happened. The last two centuries have experienced the most destructive wars of history as well as the worst famines and plagues, but the population steadily grew with a doubling time of 74 years.

      My point in this article was that population mathematics shows the evolutionary time frame is impossible and the Biblical time frame coheres with the evidence. There are not enough people alive or dead for evolution to be true. Real population evidence supports these conclusions. Speculative scenarios of the past cannot be used to overturn actual population data and population growth mathematics.

      Like

  2. BSG,
    You state
    “Moreover, where are all those skeletons? Buried bones should easily last well over 200,000 years. In fact, evolutionists themselves date dinosaur bones that they find to over 60 million years old, and over 30 million fossilized dinosaur bones and parts have been found.
    (See Dr. Jerry Bergman, The Evolution of Dinosaurs: Much Conjecture, Little Evidence, Creation Research Science Quarterly, vol 46, Fall 2009, p 124.)

    Thus earth should be inundated with human bones. Yet only a few thousand human fossil skeletons have been found — not untold millions as one would expect if the evolutionary story were true.”

    This applies much more to your 10 trillion humans alive at the flood claim than it does to the evolutionist claims, which are for far fewer humans than you are proscribing. The evolutionists seem to be claiming about 200 million with, what, several thousand bones found over 150 000 years? Compare this to 10 trillion over 6000 years – 50 000 times more bones to decay in 1/25th the time?

    What happened to all those bones?

    Like

    • I think the pre-Flood humans were destroyed in the Flood, bones and all. Most were pulverized, ground to powder, or buried by the churning sediments transported and deposited worldwide by the Flood. Evolutionists don’t believe in a Flood that could destroy the bones they postulate.

      Like


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